CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 10/06 - 06Z WED 11/06 2003
ISSUED: 09/06 21:55Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FRANCE, GERMANY AND THE BENELUX COUNTRIES.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF IRELAND, SCOTLAND, FRANCE, THE BENELUX COUNTRIES, GERMANY, CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL EUROPE, MUCH OF THE BALKANS, AND PARTS OF THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS

QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN EUROPE. A RELATIVELY STRONG JET IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN EUROPE. OVER WESTERN EUROPE MID/UPPER FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF BRETAGNE AT 06Z WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN EUROPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EXTREME WESTERN RUSSIA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION

...FRANCE, THE BENELUX COUNTRIES AND GERMANY...
EAST OF A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN NORTH SEA TO THE BAY OF BISCAY, A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER FRANCE. MLCAPE50 IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN PLACES DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIATION OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED RISING MOTIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE END OF THE MORNING OR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG /ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHR/ SO THAT SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CLUSTER INTO A LINEAR MCS OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL GERMANY.

...RUSSIA...
APPROACH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW, SO THAT MLCAPE50S ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDERD J/KG ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ALMOST NO CAPE UP NORTH. GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS QUITE STRONG IN THE NORTH, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS OCCURING DURING PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL LINEAR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OVERALL THREAT SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK.

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